Variant Perception Research app for iPhone and iPad

Variant Perception is an independent, global macroeconomic research service enabling leading and contrarian investment decision-making. Our research framework is clear and thoughtful, focusing on market themes, strategies and tactics.

- Themes: How is the global economy changing at the highest and most fundamental levels? We use a broad suite of economic data as well as our own proprietary indicators to inform our views about different economies 6 months to 12 months forward, and longer.
- Strategies: What is the best strategy to exploit each theme? What asset or product is the best way to express that theme to deliver the highest risk-adjusted return?
- Tactics: Looking at shorter-term factors, such as technicals and positioning, to determine the best time to employ this strategy, consolidate an existing position, or temporarily reduce it until conditions become more favorable again.

Our Approach is data-driven. We try to focus on data that historically has done an extremely good job at predicting GDP and industrial output nine months forward. We don’t need to be able to predict the future; we need to be able to read the past by finding and focusing on leading indicators, leaving others to fret about lagging indicators. As long as we focus on these leading relationships, we feel confident in our forecasts.

What distinguishes Variant Perception from other research providers?

- We use leading indicators to give us leading insights, allowing us to have an advanced read on the business cycle and recessions in real time. *Economists are terrible at predicting recessions - 9 out of 10 economists missed the last four recessions. Economists miss recessions because they focus on lagging indicators, rather than the leading indicators we reference.
- We are independent, highly data-driven and agnostic. We are not wedded to any point of view and follow our leading indicators even if the consensus disagrees. *Economists also miss recessions because of the vintage data problem; they reference heavily revised data. Our data-driven and forward-looking analysis removes any reliance on data that will later be revised, and our independence allows us to always take the agnostic viewpoint.
- We only write about outliers and good trade ideas; the blow ups and potential success stories. *Wall Street research is produced by rote and is too copious. An economist for France will write about France regardless of the importance or relevance of the content.
- Our style is crisp and short with powerful charts. We respect our client’s time and believe the data tells the most powerful story. *We keep our reports succinct and let the data tell the story.